Estimate the number of robot civilizations

[the_gelf]

Go on. Do it. How many robot civilizations exist in the <observable> universe. State your assumptions/how you get your answer, express as % of nonsynthetic , or as an advance on the drake equation, if you wish.

'civilization' will refer to an organised, advancing society where individual beings coordinate and interact
'robot' will refer to an entity that cannot come into being without interference by other sentient life

[Darwinsbulldog]

Lets see...30,000 Christian sects, plus the Muslims, Jewish, Hindu, etc, etc......

[Sir Patrick Crocodile]

Well there's a robot something in every church I go past. Hardly call it a civilization though as they aren't really advancing although they do coordinate* and interact* with each other.

*nudge nudge wink wink.

[Darwinsbulldog]

Originally Posted by Crocodile

Well there's a robot something in every church I go past. Hardly call it a civilization though as they aren't really advancing.

Wrong my dear Mr Alligator, they proceed at light speed towards woo. And they take the high moral ground getting there[according to them!]

[the_gelf]

Originally Posted by Crocodile

they aren't really advancing

Yup, that's why that part is in there, to exclude robots in societies that do not advance ^_^

[owheelj]

My estimation would be 0, based on the fact that none have been observed. This makes the assumption that they are out there, but either too far away, or deliberating hiding from us. Also if Kurzweil were right, they would have expanded to fill the universe unless they're within a thousand of years of technological advancement as us, which would be an impressive coincidence. I concede that saying "if Kurzweil is right" is like saying; "If Santa is right" though. In seriousness, I think if you have to choose whether something exists or not, and you have no evidence to suggest it does exist, you should assume that it doesn't until you do get some evidence.

[DanDare]

Lets say we postulate von Neuman machines. They breed by manufacturing copies. They would have to evolve. Can we still count them as "robots" or are they just another type of life form?

Anyway, long duration space flights are not a problem so they would expand to fill a galaxy over a period of a million years. Is there any way for them to form a cohesive civilization across a galaxy? Probably not so there would be about one civilisation per star.

Crossing to other galaxies? Assume about a billion years to cross from one to another so for each home galaxy there might be about 10 colonised galaxies.

So add to the end of the drake equation the number of civilisations that don't destroy themselves but do go on to make vonNeuman machines and a fraction of those that successfully extend into their galaxy. At that point work out the fraction of galaxies where this is expected to happen, multiply by 10 and multiply by the average number of stars per galaxy.

Answer = really big number, or none at all.

[the_gelf]

Originally Posted by DanDare

Lets say we postulate von Neuman machines. They breed by manufacturing copies. They would have to evolve. Can we still count them as "robots" or are they just another type of life form?

Anyway, long duration space flights are not a problem so they would expand to fill a galaxy over a period of a million years. Is there any way for them to form a cohesive civilization across a galaxy? Probably not so there would be about one civilisation per star.

Crossing to other galaxies? Assume about a billion years to cross from one to another so for each home galaxy there might be about 10 colonised galaxies.

So add to the end of the drake equation the number of civilisations that don't destroy themselves but do go on to make vonNeuman machines and a fraction of those that successfully extend into their galaxy. At that point work out the fraction of galaxies where this is expected to happen, multiply by 10 and multiply by the average number of stars per galaxy.

Answer = really big number, or none at all.

Yes, a robot that evolves itself from a basic structure to a complex strucutre still qualifies

What if those robot civilizations were so advanced that they worked out that space travel was not possible? What would the goals of these robot civilizations be?

What if they figured that an idea of fun would be to troll a planet and make life on it ? Just to cure their boredom? D:

Arrrgh my head

[Iseeyouthere]

I have a feeling that most of these robots are so out of date, a calculator is considered superior.

[Lilith]

I like your postulation, Dan. But it makes the assumption that a robot has replication as a goal. Why must your robots replicate? There's some logical efficiency in greater numbers many-hands-makes-light-work, yes, but greater numbers have greater resource requirements too.

I put forth that robots have no reason to feel separate from other robots and may well consider any other robot that exists part of their civilisation, whether they are within communications range or not - so while a robot civilisation has not been observed yet, I suggest that if one exists, it is the only one.

I give you Utobia. (Where Utobots live)