Peak Oil

[c2105026]

I may just wade back in here......

Everytime someone predicts a peak using the Hubbert Model, 99% of the time they are wrong. Colin Campbell at ASPO (Association for the study of peak oil) in correctly predicted a global peak in 1987, 1989, 1995, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010......etc. Currently were are producing 91 mb/day; a record. So the peak hasn't happened...yet. GFC only destroyed the pesky speculators who got oil to $147/bbl, looking at IEA stats the base demand is largely unchanged.

As someone who has in the past studied peak oil I feel that the IEA are more on the money than the early peaker doomers - it will come but will be gradual and will be off into the future a bit. Nonetheless, IEA and oil companies aren't really saying anything concrete after 2030, which says something. Latest data on their site suggests peak usage in 2020-2025, however this may be driven by environmental policy.

[owheelj]

Originally Posted by Glob

This is one of the most common misconceptions. We will never run out of oil. What we will definitely run out of is cheap oil. As I said in my first post, this is the main implication of peak oil.

So if we agree about this - how expensive will the "expensive" oil be? Given that at the current oil price, shale oil is being produced and sold at profit, and there's shit loads of that, will things get considerably worse than now? What I'm critiquing is the doom and gloom end of civilisation peak oil predictions.

[Glob]

Originally Posted by owheelj

So if we agree about this - how expensive will the "expensive" oil be? Given that at the current oil price, shale oil is being produced and sold at profit, and there's shit loads of that, will things get considerably worse than now? What I'm critiquing is the doom and gloom end of civilisation peak oil predictions.

I am far from qualified to give an estimate of how much 'expensive' oil might cost. My expectation is this:

1. Peak production will be reached at some point in the foreseeable future.

2. The price of oil will rise as reserves continue to be depleted (even with the introduction of new extraction technology etc.)

3. Eventually the price of oil will be higher than that of substitute technologies (e.g. biofuels and other substitutes). When this occurs, there will be a switch to the substitute technologies.

4. The cost of expensive oil will depend on the cost of substitute technologies. If substitute technologies become much cheaper in the near future, then 'expensive' oil will not be that expensive, because there will be a switch to substitute technologies before the price of oil rises too much. If substitute technologies do not come down in price much, then expensive oil could cost as much as substitute technologies cost now.

5. Substitute technologies may not be ready in time if we do not get a move on, particularly as changes to infrastructure will likely be required. This could lead to a messy transition.


I don't think the end of cheap oil will the the end of civilisation. As I said before, I think it could be so messy as to involve war, but that is as bad as I think it could get.