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Old 9th December 2017, 09:27 AM
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Default Worst-case climate models may be the most accurate

Brown, P. T. and K. Caldeira (2017). "Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget." Nature 552: 45.
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Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (−1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24672

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1206132220.htm
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Old 9th December 2017, 05:36 PM
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Default Re: Worst-case climate models may be the most accurate

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Darwinsbulldog said View Post
Brown, P. T. and K. Caldeira (2017). "Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget." Nature 552: 45.
Quote:
Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (−1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.
PAYWALL:-
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature24672

SD WRITE-UP:-
https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...1206132220.htm
As a species we lack the capacity to collectively think beyond what we see. And even the notion that "I'll believe it when I see it" doesn't describe what happens to people when they are confronted with visual evidence of what they originally disbelieved. They tend to not believe their eyes for the most part.

For example even the notion of "global warming" measured in degrees celcius as conveyed to decision makers and the public is really quite infantile. This is because what we are really talking about is excess heat and this is taken up in the latent heat of conversion from ice to water or from water to water vapour, and in the mostly upper layers of ocean. The degrees celcius rise is only an instantaneous measurement of whether we feel the need to take off our jumpers. We are really quite uneducated and its appalling that over the last several decades we have lacked the capacity to educate the public appropriately about what is actually happening.
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Old 9th December 2017, 05:55 PM
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Default Re: Worst-case climate models may be the most accurate

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wadaye said View Post
As a species we lack the capacity to collectively think beyond what we see. And even the notion that "I'll believe it when I see it" doesn't describe what happens to people when they are confronted with visual evidence of what they originally disbelieved. They tend to not believe their eyes for the most part.

For example even the notion of "global warming" measured in degrees celcius as conveyed to decision makers and the public is really quite infantile. This is because what we are really talking about is excess heat and this is taken up in the latent heat of conversion from ice to water or from water to water vapour, and in the mostly upper layers of ocean. The degrees celcius rise is only an instantaneous measurement of whether we feel the need to take off our jumpers. We are really quite uneducated and its appalling that over the last several decades we have lacked the capacity to educate the public appropriately about what is actually happening.
I reckon we might get some quicker progress if people like Abbott, Malcolm Roberts, Trump and the climate skeptic industry was held more vigorously to account for its claims. Personally, i think the world's climate change skeptics should hold a long outdoor conference in Delhi, just to get their story straight, compare notes, hang out.
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Old 10th December 2017, 01:18 AM
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Default Re: Worst-case climate models may be the most accurate

It is cold comfort indeed to reflect that at least we are among those who are sensible of this pending catastrophe and not counted among those with a vested interest in obfuscating the science and endeavouring to disparage, even demonise our climate scientists.

It is obvious that global warming will be catastrophic.

All that carbon deposited underground since the Carboniferous Era burned since the Industrial Revolution released into the atmosphere and taken up by the oceans to capacity.

Add to that devastation and clearing of forests which have been the cause of carbon sequestration and which temper the climate. Add the melting of the ice caps and the reflection of Sun's rays back into space they provide, gone.

Not only the Australian Alpine National Park will surely burn irrecoverably under unprecedented heat and fury but the Siberian forests and North American spruce and Wester Red Cedar forests, tropical rainforests of Africa and the Americas also.

I know I will be pensive as New Year rolls over into 2018. And you don't want to be some melancholic killjoy at the hour of midnight, New Year's Day around celebrating people with the big TV on.

Life is awesome. So is the planet it depends upon.
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Old 10th December 2017, 01:27 AM
wadaye wadaye is offline
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Default Re: Worst-case climate models may be the most accurate

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pipbarber said View Post
...

I reckon we might get some quicker progress if people like Abbott, Malcolm Roberts, Trump and the climate skeptic industry was held more vigorously to account for its claims. Personally, i think the world's climate change skeptics should hold a long outdoor conference in Delhi, just to get their story straight, compare notes, hang out.
The only way I think that we can get to real action is if the general population really does try to understand the science, and that requires everyone to lift their game including in the field of science communication.

To speak of a 1.5 degree celcius at chest level average air temperature rise at an instantaneous moment in the year 2100 or a 2 degree celcius rise, is just such a basic level of miscommunication of what is actually going on that its misleading in a grossly understated way.

It is much more accurate and I believe a whole lot more educative to speak of total loss of arctic ice, projected 30 degree arctic temperature rises by 2300, and so on, virtually irrespective of any action we take now. That may seem like a long time into the future but its only as far into the future as about the year 1734 is in the past, in about the middle of the reign of George II, the father of George III who sent over a boatload of prisoners to settle a place called by them New South Wales.
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Old 10th December 2017, 09:40 AM
wadaye wadaye is offline
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Default Re: Worst-case climate models may be the most accurate

PS an example of human stupidity and general unwillingness to look at the big picture and large numbers is the situation in Yemen. There are reports from the UN of 130 children dying every day from malnutrition and cholera due to the war. After six years of war, the daily news reports that over the six years, thousands of people have died. Now of course the reported total toll is actually the toll in children from malnutrition alone every fortnight. But the reasons go deeper since we don't want to have to do anything about it, so we don't report the real numbers. In large part this is political since we are supporting Saudi Arabia in imposing starvation conditions.
Its a similar situation with climate change. We don't want to do anything about it so we don't report it appropriately.
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Last edited by wadaye; 10th December 2017 at 09:41 AM.
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